Fed Survey : Mortgage Guidelines Tighten Further, Freeze Out Would-Be Refinancers

It's getting tougher to get approved for a mortgage. Still.

In its quarterly survey of senior loan officers around the country, the Federal Reserve asked whether "prime" residential mortgage guidelines" have tightened in the prior 3 months.

A "prime" borrower typically carries a well-documented credit history with high credit scores, has a low debt-to-income ratio, and uses a traditional fixed-rate or adjustable-rate mortgage.

For the period July-September 2010, 52 of 54 responding loan officers admitted to tightening their prime guidelines, or leaving them "basically unchanged".

Just 4% of banks loosened their lending standards.

If you've applied for a home loan lately -- for either purchase or refinance -- you've likely experienced the effects of the last 4 years. Because of delinquencies and defaults, today's mortgage underwriters are forced to scrutinize income, assets and credit scores, among other facets of an home loan application.

Mortgage applicants have higher hurdles to clear:

• Minimum credit scores are higher versus last year
• Downpayment/equity requirements are larger versus last year
• Debt-to-Income ratios must be lower versus last year

In other words, although mortgage rates are the lowest they've been in history, qualification standards are not.  Minimum eligibility requirements are tougher, and appear to be toughening still.

If you're among the many people wondering if now is the right time to join the Refinance Boom, or to buy a home, consider that, while mortgage rates may fall further, eligibility standards may not.

Low mortgage rates don't matter if you can't qualify for them

A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (November 3, 2010 Edition)

Today, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within in its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC noted that, since September's meeting, the pace of economic and job growth "continues to be slow".  Housing starts are "depressed", income growth is "modest" and commercial real estate investment is "weak".

With respect to its prior economic stimuli, the Fed deemed the recovery "disappointingly slow", while, at the same time, noting that growth will come.

The Fed also noted that inflation is running lower that what's optimal, hinting at the potential for deflation.

Lastly, the Fed re-acknowledged its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent "for an extended period", and also announced a new, $600 billion support package for the bond market. In most instances, a move like this would drive mortgage rates lower, but the Fed's stimulus had been widely telegraphed, and $600 billion isn't too far from the initial package estimates.

Mortgage market reaction has been muted thus far. Mortgage rates are unchanged post-FOMC, but looked poised to worsen.

The FOMC's next scheduled meeting is December 14, 2010. It's the last scheduled meeting of the year.

Mortgage Rate Lock Alert : Expect Rate Changes Wednesday Afternoon

The Federal Reserve ends a scheduled, 2-day meeting today. It's the seventh of 8 scheduled Fed meetings in 2010, and the eighth overall this year.

The Fed held an unscheduled meeting May 9, 2010.

When today's meeting adjourns, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke & Co. will publish a formal statement within which the Fed is expected to announce "no change" to the Fed Funds Rate. But that doesn't mean that mortgage rates won't change.

To the contrary, expect mortgage rates to move by a lot this afternoon. Here's why.

The Fed's mission is to preserve stability within banking and the economy and, to achieve that goal, the Fed was bequeathed a number of powers by the U.S. government.

The most well-known of those powers is to right to set the Fed Funds Rate, the rate at which banks lend money to each other overnight. 

Since December 2008, the benchmark Fed Funds Rate has been held in a range of 0.000-0.250 percent, the lowest possible range without going negative.

Now, when the Fed Funds Rate is low, it's meant to loosen credit; to push the economy forward. And, by all accounts, the near-zero Fed Funds Rate is working. The recession ended and the economy is recovering.

However, the Fed has other stimulus-providing tools at its disposal and Wall Street expects the group to use them.  This is where mortgage rates come into play. 

Investors think the Fed will announce a new stimulus in its press release this afternoon and, dependent on the size of package, mortgage rates will either rise, or fall.

• If the package is worth more than $500 billion, rates are expected to fall
• If the package is worth less than $250 billion, rates are expected to rise

If the stimulus is somewhere in between, rates should idle.

Predicting mortgage rates is an inexact science, and guessing the Fed even moreso. Therefore, if you're shopping for a mortgage rate right now, the prudent move is to lock it up prior to today's 2:15 PM ET adjournment because, after to 2:15 PM ET, we can count on the Fed Funds Rate staying flat, but the same can't be said for mortgage rates. 

Call your loan officer this morning.

A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (September 21, 2010 Edition)

Today, in its 7th meeting of the year, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged. 

The Fed Funds Rate remains at a historical low, within a Fed's target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC said that the pace of economic recovery "has slowed" in recent months. Household spending is increasing but remains restrained by high levels of unemployment, falling home values, and restrictive credit.

For the second straight month, the Federal Reserve showed less economic optimism as compared to the prior year's worth of FOMC statements dating back to June 2009. However, the Fed still expects growth to be "modest in the near-term".

This outlook is consistent with recent research showing that the recession is over, and that growth has resumed -- albeit at a slower pace than what was originally expected.

The Fed also highlighted strengths in the economy:

1. Growth is ongoing on a national level
2. Inflation levels remain exceedingly low
3. Business spending is rising

As expected, the Fed re-affirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent "for an extended period".

There were no surprises in the Fed’s statement so, as a result, the mortgage market's reaction to the release has been neutral. Mortgage rates are thus far unchanged this afternoon.

The FOMC’s next meeting is a 2-day affair scheduled for November 2-3, 2010.

The Federal Reserve Meets Today. Should You Lock Your Rate Before It Adjourns?

The Federal Open Market Committee adjourns from its 6th scheduled meeting of the year today, and 7th overall.

Upon adjournment, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will release a formal statement to the market. In it, the Fed is expected to announce "no change" to the Fed Funds Rate.

Currently, the Fed Funds Rate is within a target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.  It's been at this same level since December 2008.

Note that the Feds Funds Rate is not "a mortgage rate" -- nor is it a a consumer rate of any kind. The Fed Funds Rate is a rate that defines the cost of an overnight loan between banks. And, although the Fed Funds Rate has little direct consequence to everyday homeowners, it is the basis for Prime Rate, the interest rate on which most consumer cards are based, plus many business loans, too.

Therefore, because the Fed Funds Rate won't change today, neither will credit card rates.  Mortgage rates, however, are a different story.  Mortgage rates should change today -- regardless of what the Fed does.

It's more about what the Fed says.

In its statement, the Federal Reserve will highlight strengths and weaknesses in the economy, and threats to growth over the next few quarters. Depending on how Wall Street interprets these remarks, mortgage rates may rise or fall.

If the Fed's comments signal better-than-expected growth, bond markets should lose and mortgage rates should rise. Conversely, if the Fed's comments signal worse-than-expected growth, mortgage rates should fall.

If you're actively shopping for a mortgage, it may be prudent to lock your rate ahead of the Fed's announcement today. The Fed adjourns at 2:15 PM ET.  Call your loan officer to lock your rate.

The Fed meets 8 times annually.

Bank Mortgage Lending Policies Appear To be Easing

The tightening in mortgage-lending policies that characterized the last 3 years appears to be slowing.

According to the Federal Reserve's quarterly survey of senior bank loan officers, roughly 1 in 10 lenders added mortgage qualification hurdles between April and June. It's a huge departure from just 2 years ago when the mortgage industry was facing its first wave of challenges. 

During that period, eight in 10 lenders added hurdles.

For mortgage applicants , this quarter's Fed survey results signals that mortgage lending may have reached its limits of restriction.

Since 2007, mortgage guidelines have become increasingly restrictive. There's extra scrutiny on assets and tax returns; employment history is given more weight; loan purpose matters.  There's a bevy of traits that can stand between you and an approval that didn't exist a few years ago.

That said, lots of homeowners are still getting loans.

 

Verifiable income, good credit scores and equity are the "magic formula" and banks want to lend to good credit risks. And the best news for those that qualify is that mortgage rates are fantastic right now.

According to Freddie Mac, mortgage rates are as low as they've been in history.

So, if you're among the many wondering if now is the right time to buy a home -- or refinance one -- remember that, although mortgage guidelines likely won't get worse, mortgage rates probably will.

A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (August 10, 2010 Edition)

Today, in its first meeting in 6 weeks, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged. 

The Fed Fund Rate remains at a historical low, within a prescribed target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC said that, since June, the pace of economic recovery "has slowed". Household spending is increasing but remains restrained because of high levels of unemployment, falling home values, and restrictive credit.

Today's statement shows less economic optimism as compared to the prior year's worth of FOMC statements dating back to June 2009. The Fed is looking for growth to be "more modest in the near-term" than its previous expectations.

Weaknesses aside, the Fed highlighted strengths in the economy, too:

1. Growth is ongoing on a national level
2. Inflation levels remain exceedingly low
3. Business spending is rising

As expected, the Fed re-affirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent "for an extended period".

There were no surprises in the Fed's statement so, as a result, the mortgage market's reaction to the release has been neutral. Mortgage rates are unchanged this afternoon.

The FOMC's next meeting is scheduled for September 21, 2010.

1 In 8 Banks Tightened Prime Mortgage Standards Last Quarter

The Federal Reserve says that financial markets "remain supportive of economic growth". Residential mortgage guidelines, however, continue to tighten.

If you've applied for a home loan recently, you probably felt it; extra scrutiny on income, assets and credit scores, among other things.  The hard proof of the changes, however, can be found in the Federal Reserve's quarterly survey of its member banks.

Every 3 months, the Federal Reserve asks senior bank loan officers around the country whether their respective banks' "prime" residential mortgage guidelines tightened since the last survey.

For the period January-March 2010, 1 in 8 banks surveyed toughened their qualification standards. 

Only 4% loosened them.

When we account for the Fed's survey in conjunction with new underwriting standards from Fannie Mae and FHA, it's clear that getting approved for a mortgage in 2010 is more difficult than at any time in recent memory.

Today's homeowners and home buyers have taller hurdles to leap:

• Minimum FICO scores are higher
• Downpayment/equity requirements are larger
• Debt-to-Income thresholds are smaller

In other words, mortgage rates may stay low throughout 2010, but that won't matter to homeowners failing to meet the new, minimum eligibility standards as set forth by the lenders.

If you're among the many people wondering if now is the right time to buy or refinance a home, remember that -- along with a probable increase in mortgage rates -- mortgage approvals are getting more scarce.

The best home price or mortgage rate in the world won't matter if you're ineligible for financing.

A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (January 27, 2010 Edition)

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC noted that the U.S. economy “has continued to strengthen”, that the jobs markets is getting better, and that financial markets are supportive of growth.

There was no mention of the housing market's strength.  The last 3 statements from the Fed included that specific verbiage.

It’s the fifth straight statement in which the Fed spoke about the economy with optimism.  This should signal to markets that 2008-2009 recession is over and that economic growth is returning to U.S. economy.

The economy isn’t without threats, however, and the Fed identified several in its press release, including:

1. Credit remains tight for consumers
   
2. Businesses are reluctant to hire new workers
   
3. Housing wealth is down

The message’s overall tone, however, remained positive and inflation appears is still within tolerance.

Also in its statement, the Fed confirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period” and to wind down its $1.25 trillion commitment to the mortgage market by March 31, 2010.  This is noteworthy because Fed insiders estimate that the bond-buying program suppressed mortgage rates by 1 percent through 2009.

Mortgage market reaction to the Fed press release is, in general, negative. Mortgage rates are rising this afternoon.

The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is March 16, 2010.