Fed Minutes Edge Mortgage Rates Higher

The Federal Reserve released its September 21, 2010 meeting minutes Tuesday afternoon. Mortgage rates are slightly higher today.

It's unwelcome news for this season's home buyers, and existing homeowners with plans to grab lower rates. Mortgage rates made new lows last week and may have reached a turn-around point.

The "Fed Minutes" is published 8 times annually, and is the official meeting recap for the Federal Open Market Committee. Similar to the meeting minutes released after a corporate conference or condo association gathering, the Fed Minutes details the conversation and debate between meeting attendees.

Minutes are the lengthy companion to the Fed's brief, post-meeting press release.

Because of its content, the Fed Minutes is closely read by Wall Street and economists. It's insight into the talk that shapes our nation's monetary policy and, within the text, there's often clues about the Fed's next move.

Here's some of what the Fed discussed last month:

• On inflation : It's running at lower-than-optimal levels
• On housing : Post-tax credit, housing stalled in July
• On stimulus : The Fed may intervene in open markets within the next few months

 

The over-riding theme within the minutes was that the U.S. economy is growing a steady pace, albeit slower than what's optimal. The Fed is prepared to push things along if the economy slows further and news like that is helping stock markets.

Bond markets are losing. Rates are rising.

For now, mortgage rates hover near all-time lows.  If you haven't locked a mortgage rate yet, your window may be closing.  Once the economy turns around for certain, mortgage rates will be among the first of the casualties.

The 1 Force That Can Really Change A Mortgage Rate

All day, every day, conforming and FHA mortgage rates are in flux.  Rates move in response to hundreds of factors which exact varying levels of influence.

Among the biggest influences on mortgage rates is inflation.  When inflation is unexpectedly high, mortgage rates tend to rise quickly. Conversely, when inflation is unexpectedly low, rates tend to fall quickly.

But what is inflation?

By definition, inflation is when a currency loses its value; when what used to cost $1.00 now costs $1.10.

As consumers, we recognize inflation by the items we buy on a daily basis becoming more expensive.  However, it's not that goods are more expensive -- it's that the dollars we're using to buy them have become worth less.

With respect to mortgage rates, this is a big deal because mortgage rates are directly related to the price of a special type of bond called a mortgage-backed bond.

On Wall Street, mortgage-backed bonds are priced, bought, and sold in U.S. dollars so as inflation renders those dollars less valuable, so it does to mortgage-backed bonds as well. It's a chain reaction by which mortgage bonds lose value, leading investors sell them, causing bond prices to fall on the excess supply.

And, because mortgage rates move opposite of bond prices, as inflation takes hold, mortgage rates rise.

Lately, inflation has been exceptionally low. The Federal Reserve acknowledged as much in its last statement to the markets, and available data backs that position.  This, after predictions that inflation would be "runaway" in 2010.

The Cost of Living is up just modestly this year and it's helping mortgage rates stay low. And, so long as it lasts, the cost of owning a home will remain relatively inexpensive.

For Clues About The Future Of Mortgage Rates, Watch For Inflation

Homes are more affordable across the nation as the housing market emerges from a slow winter season with mortgage rates still near 5 percent.
Soft housing and low rates are an excellent combination for home buyers but whereas home values rise with a gradual pace, mortgage rates change in an instant.  It's something worth watching.
Each 0.25% increase to conventional or FHA rates adds approximately $16 per month for each $100,000 borrowed. Mortgage rate volatility can change your household budget.
If you're trying to gauge whether rates will be rising or falling, one keyword for which to listen is "inflation". Mortgage rates are highly responsive to inflation.
By definition, inflation is when a currency loses its value; when what used to cost $2.00 now costs $2.15. As consumers, we perceive inflation as goods becoming more expensive.  However, it's not that goods are more expensive, per se. It's that the dollars used to buy them are worth less.
This is a big deal to mortgage rates because mortgage bonds are denominated, bought, and sold in U.S. dollars.  As the dollar loses value to inflation, therefore, so does the value of every mortgage bond in existence. When bonds lose their value, investors don't want them and bond prices fall.  Mortgage rates move opposite of bond prices.

Prices down, rates up.

In today's market, the relationship between inflation and mortgage rates is helping home buyers. The Cost of Living made its smallest annual gain in 6 years last month and the Fed has repeatedly said that inflation will stay low for some time. The combination is driving investors to buy mortgage bonds which, in turn, suppresses rates.

So long as it lasts, the cost of homeownership will remain relatively low. Combined with the expiring tax credit, the timing to buy a home may be as good as it gets.